NEW YORK, Nov 20 2024 (IPS) - The future of childhood will be fundamentally shaped by the interventions taken in the present that can determine how children’s rights are protected amid compounding issues. As a new report from UNICEF shows, global trends that are already influencing children’s welfare and development will continue to shape them and be a further reflection of overall global development.
UNICEF’s flagship report provides projections on what childhood will look like in 2050 based on current trends in global issues. Released on World Children’s Day (November 20), The State of the World’s Children 2024: The Future of Childhood in a Changing World details the possible opportunities and challenges children may face in the future through the influence of three global influences, or megatrends: demographic change, climate and environmental crises, and breakthrough technologies.
On May 2, 2024, pupils play outside the UNICEF-supported Zarin Abad CBE (‘Community-Based Education’ classes) in Nangarhar Province, eastern Afghanistan. Credit: UNICEF/Mark Naftalin
“Children are experiencing a myriad of crises, from climate shocks to online dangers, and these are set to intensify in the years to come,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “The projections in this report demonstrate that the decisions world leaders make today—or fail to make—define the world children will inherit. Creating a better future in 2050 requires more than just imagination; it requires action. Decades of progress, particularly for girls, are under threat.”
In its foreword, Russell remarked that these issues are threats to the safety and wellbeing of children and that it goes against the commitments made in the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), which was first adopted in 1990. She added that in many cases, governments have fallen short in honoring their commitments to protect children’s rights.
Children are having fun on a raft on a polluted river after winning their cricket match on the polluted Banani Lake in the Korail Slum of Dhaka, Bangladesh, on 28 January 2024. Credit: UNICEF/Jannatul Mawa
When it comes to demographic changes, the report notes that the global child population will likely remain unchanged from the present day to 2050, sitting at approximately 2.3 billion. By 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia may have the largest child populations globally. It is worth noting that these regions include some of the poorest countries in the world, along with countries that are more vulnerable to natural disasters and extreme weather events.
What this also means is that by the 2050s, the child population will drop across different regions when compared to the rates in the 2000s. In Africa, it will drop below 40 percent by the 2050s compared to below 50 percent in the 2000s; in East Asia and Western Europe, the child population will drop below 17 percent, where in the past they made up 29 percent and 20 percent, respectively. By the 2050s, ten countries will be home to half the global child population, which may include India, China, Nigeria, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The projected plateau in the child population is an indication of an aging population, as the life expectancy has increased and child mortality rates continue to decrease. For some regions with an older population, such as developed countries, there will be a need to meet the demands of this population group. This should not come at the cost of prioritizing children’s needs and child-responsive spaces, the report notes. Children’s needs must remain a priority for decision-makers. Opportunities for intergenerational dialogue and cooperation should be encouraged.
Children learn using tablets during an e-learning session at the Alshargia safe learning space, Kassala, Sudan. Credit: UNICEF/Ahmed Mohamdeen Elfatih
The climate and environmental crises have a pervasive impact on children when it comes to their health, education, and safety. The report notes that in the 2050s, eight times as many children globally will be exposed to extreme heatwaves, three times as many will be exposed to extreme river floods, and nearly twice as many will be exposed to extreme wildfires, compared to the 2000s.
While this is tragically a universal experience for children, the impact of these hazards on individual children will differ based on certain factors, such as their age, their health, their socioeconomic setting and access to resources. As the report argues, a child with access to climate-resilient shelter, health care, and clean water will likely have a greater chance of surviving climate shocks compared to a child without access to the same resources. Therefore, targeted environmental action is needed to protect all children from climate shocks and to mitigate the risks they face, such as displacement, disrupted education and health issues.
The third megatrend identified in the report is what it calls frontier technologies. These include the digitalization of education and social life and the use of artificial intelligence (AI). It acknowledges that these technologies have advantages and disadvantages. As they are emerging technologies, governance over their use and application, especially as it applies to children, is paramount. The report notes that these technologies can be game-changers if the focus is on children that are hardest to reach.
Yet the digital divide still remains, as over 95 percent of people in high-income countries are connected to the internet, compared to nearly 26 percent in low-income countries in 2024. The report notes that a large percentage of youth in low- and middle-income countries have difficulty accessing digital skills. In Sub-Saharan Africa for example, 230 million jobs will require digital skills by 2030. The disparity in digital skills training will likely impact young people’s ability to effectively and responsibly use digital tools in education and future workplaces. Such barriers are linked to socio-economic settings, gender and accessibility across developing and developed countries.
Much of the projections discussed thus far are based on what the report describes as a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which global development trends remain in the current trajectory. The report also presents its projections through two other scenarios: one in which accelerated development globally may lead to greater economic growth in lower-income countries and fewer children living in poverty, predicting a more optimistic viewpoint of global development; and the other scenario, in which delayed development leads to fragmentary results and an increasing number of children living in risk of environmental threats or in poverty.
Within the context of the climate crisis, under the current trajectory of development, eight times as many children will be exposed to extreme heatwaves by 2050. However, in the scenario of accelerated development, that rate drops to four times as many children being at risk, and in the delayed development scenario, fourteen times more children may be at risk of extreme heatwaves.
Increased gains in access to education are likely to increase across every region, with up to 96 percent of children completing primary education by the 2050s, higher than the rate of 80 percent in the 2000s. If countries work towards accelerated development, the report suggests that all school-aged children could receive primary and secondary education in the 2050s. Closing the gender gap in primary and secondary education must remain a priority, particularly under present-day circumstances where 1 in 4 girls aged 15-19 are not in school, employment or training compared to 1 in 10 boys.
The report calls for adult decision-makers, namely parents and governments, to make decisions on children’s wellbeing and development that are rooted in the conditions outlined in the CRC. It concludes with the call for all stakeholders to take action in three key areas. First, to invest in education and other essential services for children that are inclusive of their needs and guarantee social protections for them and their caregivers. Second, to build and expand climate-resilient systems and infrastructures, with a focus on developing climate action plans that include child-responsive practices. And thirdly, the delivery of safe connectivity and use of frontier technologies for children, noting the importance of promoting digital literacy and skills and employing a rights-based approach to the regulation and use of new technologies.
Whatever steps are taken towards responding to the great existential issues of our time, UNICEF stresses that children’s inputs should be heeded. As the future generations that will live with the consequences of the decision-makers’ actions, their insight into their own needs should be consulted throughout the process. Russell states in the foreword of the report that the scenarios presented are not inevitabilities. Rather, they should encourage stakeholders to set a forward-thinking course towards a better life for children and adolescents. “With resolve and global cooperation, we can shape a future where every child is healthy, educated and protected. Our children deserve no less.”
IPS UN Bureau Report
